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In a new report sent to Rigzone late Monday, strategists at Macquarie revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories dropped 6.5 million barrels for the week ending September 22.
“This follows a 2.1 million barrel draw for the week ending September 15, with the total U.S. crude balance again realizing modestly tighter than we had anticipated,” the strategists said in the report.
“For this week, from refineries, we look for another step lower in crude runs (-0.2 MBD). We model a slight increase net imports, with exports modestly lower on a nominal basis (-0.3 MBD) and imports also down (-0.2 MDB),” the strategists added.
“Export timing remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s stats. From implied domestic supply (prod. + adj.), we look for a sharp reduction (-1.0 MBD) following last week’s strong print. Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a small increase in Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory on the week (+0.3 million barrels),” they went on to state.
In the report, the strategists also noted that, at Cushing, their refinery/pipeline model is calling for a draw of 0.7 million barrels this week.
“Among products, we look for modest draws in gasoline (-0.9 million barrels) and distillate (-0.4 million barrels), with jet stocks slightly higher (+0.1 million barrels),” the strategists said.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.1 MBD compared to 14.2 MBD last week and a trailing four-week avg. of 14.3 MBD,” the strategists continued.
In a report sent to Rigzone last week, Macquarie strategists projected that U.S. crude inventories would be down 0.7 million barrels for the week ending September 15. In that report, the strategists also anticipated a “modestly larger increase in Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory on the week (+0.6 million barrels)”.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, decreased by 2.1 million barrels from the week ending September 8 to the week ending September 15, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest weekly petroleum status report. Crude oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve came in at 351.2 million barrels on September 15 and 350.6 million barrels on September 8, the latest EIA report showed.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on Wednesday. The report states that it provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products and that it provides the industry, press, planners, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and state and local governments with a ready, reliable source of current information.
According to data available on the EIA site, the highest weekly U.S. crude oil ending stock figure, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, was seen on June 19, 2020, at 540.722 million barrels. The lowest weekly U.S. crude oil ending stock figure, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, was seen on January 23, 2004, at 247.323 million barrels, the data showed.
The EIA site also outlined that the highest weekly U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude oil ending stock figure was seen on January 1, 2010, at 726.617 million barrels, and that the lowest weekly U.S. SPR crude oil ending stock figure was seen on August 20, 1982, at 270.455 million barrels.
Data on the EIA site for weekly U.S. crude oil ending stock figures and weekly U.S. SPR crude oil ending stock figures spanned from August 1982 to September 2023.
Macquarie is a global financial services group operating in 34 markets in asset management, retail and business banking, wealth management, leasing and asset financing, market access, commodity trading, renewables development, specialist advisory, capital raising, and principal investment, the company’s website states.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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