[ad_1]
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone this week, Macquarie strategists revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up 4.7 million barrels for the week ending November 3.
“This follows a 0.8 million barrel build for the week ending October 27, with the total U.S. crude balance realizing tighter than our expectations,” the strategists stated in the report.
“We note the EIA will not be releasing weekly oil stats this week, with the EIA reporting two weeks of stats on November 15. In any event, for the week ending Nov. 3, we look for subdued refinery activity continuing, with crude runs up modestly (+0.3 million barrels per day),” they added.
“Among net imports, we look for an increase for the week ending Nov. 3, with exports lower on a nominal basis (-0.9 million barrels per day) and imports effectively flat. From implied domestic supply (prod. + adj.), we look for a small reduction (-0.1 million barrels per day),” they continued.
“Rounding out the picture, we again anticipate no change in Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory for the week ending Nov. 3,” they went on to state.
The strategists also noted in the report that, among products, their balances anticipate a “healthy draw in distillate (-4.0 million barrels), with gasoline stocks also lower (-1.4 million barrels), and a build in jet (+0.5 million barrels)”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.5 million barrels per day compared to 14.1 million barrels per day last week and a trailing four-week avg. of 14.3 million barrels per day,” the strategists added.
In a release posted on its website on October 19, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said it will delay its scheduled data releases for November 8 – 10 “to complete a planned systems upgrade”.
EIA noted in the release that it will resume its regular publishing schedule on November 13.
“The delay will affect all scheduled data releases, including the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) on November 8 and the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) on November 9,” the EIA stated in its release.
“EIA will continue to collect data for those reports and will publish two weeks of official statistics for the WPSR on November 15 and the WNGSR on November 16,” it added.
“All EIA survey respondents will continue to submit data to EIA during the systems upgrade,” the EIA continued.
The EIA’s latest WPSR showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 0.8 million barrels from the week ending October 20 to the week ending October 27.
Crude oil stocks in the country, not including the SPR, were 421.9 million barrels on October 27, 421.1 million barrels on October 20, and 436.8 million barrels on October 28, 2022, the report showed. SPR stocks stood at 351.3 million barrels on October 27 and October 20, and 399.8 million barrels on October 28, 2022, the report revealed.
Total petroleum stocks in the U.S. – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene-type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – were 1.613 billion barrels on October 27, according to the report. That figure marked a 3.1 million barrel drop week on week and a 10.1 million barrel drop year on year, the EIA report highlighted.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone prior to the release of the EIA’s latest WPSR, Macquarie strategists projected that U.S. crude inventories would be up 2.9 million barrels for the week ending October 27.
“This follows a 1.4 million barrel build for the week ending October 20, with the total U.S. crude balance realizing largely in-line with our expectations,” the strategists said in that report.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
[ad_2]
Source link