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In a new report sent to Rigzone on Monday, strategists at Macquarie revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be down 3.0 million barrels for the week ending September 29.
“This follows a 2.2 million barrel draw for the week ending September 22, with the total U.S. crude balance realizing significantly looser than we anticipated, more than offsetting tighter than expected balances in the prior two weeks,” the strategists said in the report.
“Moving to this week, from refineries, we model yet another reduction in crude runs (-0.4 MBD). Among net imports, we look for a large week on week reduction, with exports significantly higher on a nominal basis (+0.6 MBD) and imports sharply lower (-1.0 MBD),” the Macquarie strategists added.
“From implied domestic supply (prod. + adj.), we look for a bounce-back (+1.1 MBD) following last week’s soft print,” the strategists continued.
In the report, the strategists noted that they model no change in Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory on the week, “given uncertainty around precise inventory movements from recently varying Energy Information Administration (EIA)/Department of Energy (DOE) data”.
The Macquarie strategists also stated in the report that, at Cushing, their refinery/pipeline model is calling for a build of 0.2 million barrels this week.
“Among products, we look for builds in gasoline (+1.0 million barrels) and jet (+1.0 million barrels), with a healthy draw in distillate (-2.7 million barrels) amidst an expected seasonal increase in demand,” the strategists said in the report.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.3 MBD compared to 14.2 MBD last week and a trailing four-week avg. of 14.2 MBD,” they added.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report, which was released on September 27 and showed data for the week ending September 22, the EIA revealed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, decreased by 2.2 million barrels from the week ending September 15 to the week ending September 22.
The country’s crude oil stocks, not including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, stood at 416.3 million barrels on September 22, 418.5 million barrels on September 15, and 430.6 million barrels on September 23, 2022, that EIA report revealed.
Total crude oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve was 351.0 million barrels on September 22, 351.2 million barrels on September 15, and 422.6 million barrels on September 23, 2022, according to that report.
The EIA report also highlighted that total U.S. stocks – including crude oil, motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.618 billion barrels on September 22. This was down 1.7 million barrels from the prior week, the report outlined.
In a report sent to Rigzone on September 25, strategists at Macquarie revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories dropped 6.5 million barrels for the week ending September 22.
“This follows a 2.1 million barrel draw for the week ending September 15, with the total U.S. crude balance again realizing modestly tighter than we had anticipated,” the strategists said in that report.
In that report, the strategists also anticipated a “small increase in Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory on the week (+0.3 million barrels)”.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on October 4 and will show data for the week ending September 29.
The report notes that it provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products. Geographic coverage in the report includes the 50 States and District of Columbia, the report adds, highlighting that U.S. territories are treated as import sources but are otherwise excluded from weekly petroleum supply statistics.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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