[ad_1]
According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest oil market report, which was released in October, Iran produced 3.14 million barrels of crude oil per day, excluding condensates, in September.
The report, which highlights that the country is exempt from OPEC+ cuts, shows that Iran produced exactly the same amount of oil in August and that the country’s sustainable capacity is 3.8 million barrels per day. The IEA’s report defines sustainable capacity as capacity levels that can be reached within 90 days and sustained for an extended period.
“Global supply growth this year and next, of 1.5 million barrels per day and 1.7 million barrels per day, respectively, is dominated by non-OPEC+ producers,” the IEA said in its October oil market report.
“As for the OPEC+ bloc, the supply story this year is one of contraction, although Iran is on course to rank as the world’s second biggest source of growth after the United States,” the IEA added.
In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was also released this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (IEA) revealed that Iran’s crude oil production, excluding condensates, came in at 2.93 million barrels per day in the third quarter.
Iran’s output was 2.74 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 2.60 million barrels per day in the first quarter, 2.56 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2022, 2.53 million barrels per day in both the third and second quarters of last year, and 2.55 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2022, according to the IEA’s October STEO.
The country’s average crude oil production, excluding condensates, was 2.54 million barrels per day last year, the STEO showed.
In a report sent to Rigzone last week in the wake of the Israel-Hamas conflict, analysts at Standard Chartered noted that “the U.S. policy debate about Iranian oil exports is likely to become a key factor for oil market sentiment”.
The analysts highlighted in the report that the U.S. appears to have three broad policy options in relation to Iran’s oil output.
“One, the status quo, with output at three million barrels per day or higher, two, the pre-2023 plateau of close to 2.5 million barrels per day, or three, near-zero exports with output below two million barrels per day as reached at the end of the Trump administration,” the Standard Charted analysts said in the report.
“A week ago, one was the most expedient policy for the U.S. in terms of both market influence and geopolitics,” they added.
“We think the key question now is the extent that further developments in the Middle East bring two and three back into focus as potential policy targets,” they went on to note.
In another report sent to Rigzone last week, Macquarie strategists stated that, in their assessment, “the Biden administration’s policy approach has been to limit oil supply disruptions, regardless of the situation”.
“Given that policy objectives did not target Russian oil flows even at the height of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, we do not expect Iranian oil exports to be constrained either,” they added in the report.
In a report sent to Rigzone on October 3, analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, noted that Iran has benefited from resurgent crude import demand in mainland China, which they said has increased far in excess of domestic fuels demand, “as well as a thawing of relations with the United States”.
“While U.S. secondary sanctions remain in place on Iranian exports, mediated negotiations between Washington and Tehran are producing results, as is evident in the recent prisoner swap,” the analysts said in that report.
“This has helped to de-risk trade with Iran, as the U.S. tacitly softens its approach towards sanctions enforcement,” the analysts added.
In the report, the analysts projected that “Iran will be constrained by the dearth of buyers outside of mainland China and rising competition from other OPEC exporters next year”.
According to the Energy Institute’s (EI) first, and the overall 72nd, statistical review of world energy, which was released earlier this year, Iran produced 3.313 million barrels of crude oil and condensate per day in 2022.
This figure marked a 4.1 percent year on year increase and 4.1 percent of the total crude oil and condensate production last year, the report revealed. Iran has seen an annual reduction of 0.3 percent in crude oil and condensate production from 2012 to 2022, the report highlighted.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
[ad_2]
Source link