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Increasing electric vehicle adoption, driven by cheaper Chinese electric vehicles penetrating global markets and compliance with California’s Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) policy, is just around the corner.
That’s what Carson Kearl, a senior associate at Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, said in a release sent to Rigzone recently, which highlighted that EIR has published a new report with an updated view on electric vehicle adoption across its coverage regions, which comprise the U.S., OECD Europe, OECD Asia, India, and China.
“This boost in confidence is primarily due to surpassing expectations in China and Europe and a decrease in long-term fleet size assumptions,” Kearl said in the release.
“EIR predicts a substantial 3.5 million barrel per day reduction in gasoline and diesel consumption by 2030 in its covered regions and we are optimistic about North American lithium suppliers, particularly those with prime acreage positions, and battery recycling companies poised to benefit from the surge in electric vehicle sales and the resulting influx of used batteries,” Kearl added.
EIR noted in the release that it expects the electric vehicle share of new sales across its covered regions to reach 68 percent by 2030, “up from 59 percent previously”. For this to come to fruition, cheaper Chinese electric vehicles must penetrate broader Asian, European, and Australian markets, the release stated. Additionally, states that have signed on to California’s ZEV policy must meet their pledged targets for electric vehicle sales, EIR added in the release.
In a statement posted on its website last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) outlined that its World Energy Outlook shows there are set to be almost 10 times as many electric cars on the road by 2030.
“The phenomenal rise of clean energy technologies such as solar, wind, electric cars and heat pumps is reshaping how we power everything from factories and vehicles to home appliances and heating systems,” the IEA said in the statement.
In another statement posted on its site back in April, the IEA highlighted that the latest edition of its annual Global Electric Vehicle Outlook showed that “more than 10 million electric cars were sold worldwide in 2022 and that sales are expected to grow by another 35 percent this year to reach 14 million”.
“This explosive growth means electric cars’ share of the overall car market has risen from around four percent in 2020 to 14 percent in 2022 and is set to increase further to 18 percent this year, based on the latest IEA projections,” the IEA added in the statement.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in the statement, “electric vehicles are one of the driving forces in the new global energy economy that is rapidly emerging – and they are bringing about a historic transformation of the car manufacturing industry worldwide”.
“The trends we are witnessing have significant implications for global oil demand. The internal combustion engine has gone unrivalled for over a century, but electric vehicles are changing the status quo,” he added.
“By 2030, they will avoid the need for at least five million barrels a day of oil. Cars are just the first wave: electric buses and trucks will follow soon,” he continued.
In a statement posted on Rystad Energy’s website last month, the company’s CEO, Jarand Rystad, said electric vehicles have taken the world by storm in recent years, “with Norway leading the way measured in new sales and market penetration”.
“About 90 percent of new cars sold in Norway are now electric vehicles, and several other countries are following suit,” Rystad said in the statement.
“Moreover, electrifying road transportation is a pillar in many countries’ energy transition strategy, with policymakers around the world offering significant incentives to those who make the switch to electric vehicles,” he added.
In the statement, Rystad highlighted that the company forecasts that 14.5 million passenger electric vehicles will be sold globally in 2023, “accounting for a 19 percent market share of the total car market”.
“This would represent a 38 percent increase year on year,” he added.
“Does this mean the end of the ICE (internal combustion engine) age is just around the corner? Do we see empirical evidence of gasoline and diesel demand destruction as electric vehicle penetration increases? And are countries ready to introduce bans on the sale of new ICE vehicles from a certain year? The answer to all of those questions appears to be yes,” Rystad continued.
In an opinion piece posted on Wood Mackenzie’s website in October, Max Reid, the company’s senior research analyst for electric vehicles and battery supply chain service, said, “forecasts for the global electric vehicle market show there will be 44 million electric vehicles on the road by 2030”.
“Despite the move to decarbonize the road transport market, the upfront costs of an electric vehicle is still prohibitive to the driver. To lessen this cost burden for consumers, governments have been offering modest tax credits and purchase subsidies,” he added.
“While these subsidies will give some relief in the short-term, the longer term consideration is focusing on the costs of raw materials and ensuring a protected and uninterrupted stream of batteries and raw materials,” Reid continued.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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