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Russian oil-product flows have surged so far this month as local refiners boost processing rates due to the end of seasonal maintenance and the nation continued easing export restrictions.
The rebound helps to offset what has been a grinding decline in seaborne crude cargoes over the past several weeks. That’s important because Russia counts combined crude and fuel flows as metrics for compliance with a pact with OPEC+. The producer group will meet in the next several days to discuss future supply plans.
Led by a hike in diesel, Russia’s fuel shipments jumped to about 2.4 million barrels a day through Nov. 18, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa Ltd. That’s up about 333,000 barrels a day from October, meaning they’re on pace to reach a four-month high.
The recovery is down to a combination of the lifting key parts of a ban on seaborne motor fuel exports and the completion of seasonal maintenance work at the nation’s oil refineries.
The government on Oct. 6 allowed most seaborne diesel exports to resume. It lifted a ban on gasoline exports on Nov. 17. Certain restrictions on diesel do remain but Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told senators at the Federation Council on Wednesday that they may be lifted in the near future too because the domestic market is saturated.
Russia has committed to curb its oil supplies, spanning both crude and products, by 300,000 barrels a day until the end of December.
As well strong diesel and gasoil flows, shipments were boosted by extra fuel oil and naphtha.
Here’s a breakdown of oil product shipments from the country’s ports for Nov. 1-18:
Diesel and gasoil exports, which account for about 40% of the fuel flows, jumped to 956,000 barrels a day, the highest since August. Shipments from Baltic ports rose to a three-month high, while those from the Black Sea also increased. Turkey, Brazil and China remain the biggest markets for Russian diesel.
Naphtha exports also climbed, to 417,000 barrels a day, the highest in six months. Cargoes to Asia have eased, while flows to Africa and the Middle East have surged.
Gasoline and blending component shipments remained weak, given the ban on exports of the auto fuel for most of the monitoring period. Volumes were less than half of the previous month, around 36,000 barrels a day. Jet fuel flows rose to 42,000 barrels a day.
Fuel oil exports jumped by about 17% from the previous month to 841,000 barrels a day, the highest since April. Outflows of refinery feedstocks, which include vacuum gasoil, increased to a three-month high of 123,000 barrels a day.
Cargo volumes and destinations are likely to be revised as more shipments are observed for the rest of the month.
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